TLDR: Since Tesla’s June 2025 robotaxi launch, Tesla has built a 39-vehicle unsupervised fleet, while Waymo has a newly disclosed 3,791-vehicle U.S. fleet.
I'm fine with that timeline. The rollout in Austin hasn't been the smoothest -- though in faiirness, we now have so many Waymos in town that they keep having issues like knowing what to do when encountering an emergency vehicle. They aren't going around killing people, but that's a pretty low bar.
That is already a massive improvement, as the actual minimum for autonomous vehicles is just "kill fewer people than human drivers". Waymo has 200 million miles driven, which means they should have killed three people already.
Even on non-lethal accidents, Waymo generates something like 12x fewer.
I think that tech will be the automotive equivalent of the polio vaccine. Dying in road accidents will become akin to dying of rabies, a freak accident of extreme rarity. Probably, so will driving cars with no autonomous capabilities.
Honestly, this just exposes how bad the author is at math.
Like congratulations, you've heard of a linear trend line, surely all systems can be modelled with nothing more than an unchanging straight line right?
I hope nothing but the worst for Tesla, but this kind of guffawing at the most basic possible extrapolation just makes the author look dumb.
It's me. And yes, I'm bad at math, guilty as charged. I tend to make pretty simple points.
But, yes, when a publicly traded company promises exponential growth on their earnings calls, and then delivers double-digit unit delivery a year later, I do tend to point and laugh. All of that is accurate.
I’m currently renting a Model Y with the latest FSD and I’m very impressed. I’ve had it for about 3 weeks and put about 1,200 miles on it. I’d say 99% or more FSD.
Truly mind blowing at times. Drove for 90 mins or so through rush hour leaving Miami Beach perfectly. End to end parking everywhere I go.
I don’t know about the whole cab thing working out, but it’s damn good while supervised.
Personally, I tried it. Wasn't my cup of tea, bad safety margins (it doesn't drive how I drive, and I am particular). There's a consumer for that product, though. So long as you watch it closely, I certainly don't mind, glad it suits you.
Weird. What safety margin didn’t you like specifically? I have a short list of gripes but they’re not related to safety. Damn thing is a bit too safe and civil at times.
Ulrich
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •Che Banana
in reply to Ulrich • • •Powderhorn
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •like this
KayLeadfoot likes this.
JohnEdwa
in reply to Powderhorn • • •Waymo has 200 million miles driven, which means they should have killed three people already.
like this
KayLeadfoot likes this.
KayLeadfoot
in reply to JohnEdwa • • •Even on non-lethal accidents, Waymo generates something like 12x fewer.
I think that tech will be the automotive equivalent of the polio vaccine. Dying in road accidents will become akin to dying of rabies, a freak accident of extreme rarity. Probably, so will driving cars with no autonomous capabilities.
like this
KayLeadfoot likes this.
Jiral
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •angelmountain
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •sanzky
in reply to angelmountain • • •masterspace
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •Honestly, this just exposes how bad the author is at math.
Like congratulations, you've heard of a linear trend line, surely all systems can be modelled with nothing more than an unchanging straight line right?
I hope nothing but the worst for Tesla, but this kind of guffawing at the most basic possible extrapolation just makes the author look dumb.
KayLeadfoot
in reply to masterspace • • •It's me. And yes, I'm bad at math, guilty as charged. I tend to make pretty simple points.
But, yes, when a publicly traded company promises exponential growth on their earnings calls, and then delivers double-digit unit delivery a year later, I do tend to point and laugh. All of that is accurate.
like this
KayLeadfoot likes this.
locuester
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •I’m currently renting a Model Y with the latest FSD and I’m very impressed. I’ve had it for about 3 weeks and put about 1,200 miles on it. I’d say 99% or more FSD.
Truly mind blowing at times. Drove for 90 mins or so through rush hour leaving Miami Beach perfectly. End to end parking everywhere I go.
I don’t know about the whole cab thing working out, but it’s damn good while supervised.
KayLeadfoot
in reply to locuester • • •I'm glad for you!
Personally, I tried it. Wasn't my cup of tea, bad safety margins (it doesn't drive how I drive, and I am particular). There's a consumer for that product, though. So long as you watch it closely, I certainly don't mind, glad it suits you.
locuester
in reply to KayLeadfoot • • •