End-of-Year Threat Intelligence Sightings Forecast
🎁 Here’s a little end-of-year gift backed with Sightings from Vulnerability-Lookup ! A small step into 2026.
The year is almost over, so we’ve wrapped up a fresh Sightings Forecast — looking at how sightings evolve across social platforms, code repositories, and structured feeds. All monitored through our tools[1] and enriched by our fantastic community[2].
👉 Read the full report:
vulnerability-lookup.org/2025/…
The goal: track how sightings evolve over time and provide an adaptive short-term forecast for several key sources monitored by Vulnerability-Lookup.
Our methodology combines weekly historical trends with daily adaptive models. Depending on the underlying slope, we apply either a Logistic Growth model (for rising trends) or an Exponential Decay model (for declining activity).
🔍 Key takeaways
Social platforms like the Fediverse and Bluesky show highly event-driven, volatile patterns, reflecting real-time community discussions.
Structured sources such as MISP Projec, The Shadowserver Foundation, and Nuclei offer more stable and reliable signals, ideal for validated intelligence.
Early detection: Social sources provide fast but noisy signals. Not to ignore.
Reliability: Structured intelligence confirms and contextualizes threats.
Better planning: Adaptive forecasting enables informed prioritization and workload management.
Balanced visibility: Combining heterogeneous sources gives stronger situational awareness.
📚 References
- [1] Automation tools: vulnerability-lookup.org/user-…
- [2] Be part of the community: vulnerability.circl.lu/user/si…
- Daily dumps: vulnerability.circl.lu/dumps/
- Forecasting project: github.com/vulnerability-looku…
💶🇪🇺 Funding
This work is part of the EU-funded FETTA initiative, strengthening cross-European collaboration on threat intelligence.
EU Funding & Tenders Portal
The Funding and Tenders Portal is the single entry point (the Single Electronic Data Interchange Area) for applicants, contractors and experts in funding programmes and procurements managed by the European Commission.ec.europa.eu
