80% of U.S startups JUST switched to Chinese AI... (In silence)
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Eager Eagle
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to Eager Eagle • • •eestileib
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •It's like China has a few smart people left in their government!
They've fucked up plenty, their asset bubble is going to be crippling just like everybody else, but overall they are in a vastly better position than the US to advance their imperialistic goals.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to eestileib • • •eestileib
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •As I understand it, housing speculation has filled a similar role to 401(k)s in the US, the relatively illiquid asset that "always goes up".
People will feel a lot poorer when their apartment loses 70% of its value, and I don't think that's exactly the same as, say, a big leveraged builder going out of business.
You're right of course the US won't let one rich man go broke so it is worse there.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to eestileib • • •Chinese household savings hit a record high in 2024 wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-mar…
90% of families in the country own their home giving China one of the highest home ownership rates in the world. What’s more is that 80% of these homes are owned outright, without mortgages or any other leans. forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2…
Student debt in China is virtually non-existent. forbes.com/sites/jlim/2016/08/…
It's pretty clear that there is very little negative impact from housing prices falling on the vast majority of the population. And it's great news for young people who are moving from countryside to the cities and can now afford cheap housing.
The key reason why 2008 was a clusterfuck was because Obama decided to bail out the bankers and fuck the working class in the process.
eestileib
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •I used to own a house free and clear. If the value dropped by half, I would still feel a lot poorer.
When the price of assets held as a store of value drops, the holders of those assets are impoverished. That's already bad.
Now, when a fall in the price of assets held as a store of value drops, and that triggers a series of defaults that ripples across the financial system, that's even worse.
I can't see from the outside the degree to which Chinese society has been financialized, but I'm betting it's more than the CCP wants to let on.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to eestileib • • •I mean, literally the first link in my reply is saying that household savings in China are at record high levels. 🤷
When the cost of hosing, the basic necessity for living, drops that is in fact a very good thing. And the record high savings number clearly demonstrates that housing is not a primary investment vehicle for majority of the population. As Xi put it, hosing is for living. This was an intentional policy choice and a correct one.
If you think that Chinese society has been financialized then you're utterly clueless on the subject and have no business discussing it.
madcaesar
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to madcaesar • • •dparticiple
in reply to madcaesar • • •What’s next for Chinese open-source AI
Caiwei Chen (MIT Technology Review)krimson
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •Anthropic banned me for no reason last week, was merely using it for some SaaS project. Appealed, nothing. No reason given other than usage policy blabla.
Google Gemini, unusable, timed out 9 out of 10 times.
Very expensive, and unsustainable in my opinion. All the big boys lack capacity and I doubt they will be able to get that sorted.
Now running Qwen3.6:27B, opensourced by Ali Baba, locally. Works really well actually.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to krimson • • •RPG: A Repository Planning Graph for Unified and Scalable Codebase Generation
arXiv.orgkrimson
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •Personallly, I think qwen3.6 is already pretty close to Claude.
Did not know about ATLAS, will definitely try that out.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to krimson • • •qaz
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •I've said this before. The Chinese models are significantly better and will outcompete the models from the US, it was just a matter of people realizing that.
My other prediction, being that they will lobby for tariffs or banning Chinese models outright also seems to be coming true.
A Dark-Money Campaign Is Paying Influencers to Frame Chinese AI as a Threat
I do wonder how Europe is going to react. Will they just focus on their home grown Mistral or will they consider Chinese open weight models? I feel like the EU is quite wary of anything Chinese and that many people won't fully comprehend the actual security risk and that they will initially dismiss are avoid them, but they can't ignore it forever. Qwen 3.6 35B which can be ran at home is already leaving Mistral's latest models in the dust.
A Dark-Money Campaign Is Paying Influencers to Frame Chinese AI as a Threat
Taylor Lorenz (WIRED)☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to qaz • • •qaz
in reply to ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆ • • •Indeed, that argument doesn't really work. I suspect the argument will be that they're untrustworthy and will give a distorted view of reality with subtle propaganda shown with a video of someone asking non open weights Chinese models about Tianamen Square or something.
Another approach is that they will form a cartel for running US inference focused datacenters and will pivot to selling services using it.
☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆
in reply to qaz • • •P03 Locke
in reply to qaz • • •Maybe not as good as Claude, but they are good enough, and open-source, and free. The US market is going to learn the hard way why open-source curbstomps greedy bullshit.
OpenAI will be the first to fall, and then better players like Claude will be forced to release more open-sourced models.
Then it'll just come from Germany or France or elsewhere. It doesn't take millions of dollars to train a good model, despite these US companies pretending that it does.
qaz
in reply to P03 Locke • • •Correct, the American frontier models Claude Opus, GPT 5.4, GPT 5.5, and Gemini 3 Pro still score better (while costing significantly more), but the runner ups are all Chinese models.
Well, it does. Deepseek-R1 cost $6 million and that was considered to be very cheap. Europe only really has Mistral's models, Proton's Lumo and several models that focus on transparency, ethically sourced training data, and supposedly better local language support (OpenEuroLLM, GPT-NL), but they're by far not as good as other models and I don't expect them to be for quite some time.
P03 Locke
in reply to qaz • • •DeepSeek didn’t really train its flagship model for $294,000
Tobias Mann (theregister)an0nym0us_dr0ne
in reply to qaz • • •Tbh most people are now way more open towards China then they are towards the US. Sure, China spy’s on you but they never made a big deal out of it. So you know what you are getting.
The US spy’s just as hard but still tries to play the good boy and in doubt I bet Europe will choose the honest partner over someone who lies.
That said we use Mistrals AI and it is more than good enough for the purpose. Anything beyond that has yet to prove its usefulness.