When then Tropical Storm Melissa was churning south of Haiti, Philippe Papin, a National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologist, had confidence it was about to grow into a monster hurricane.As the lead forecaster on duty, he predicted that in just 24 hours the storm would become a category 4 hurricane and begin a turn towards the coast of Jamaica. No NHC forecaster had ever issued such a bold forecast for rapid strengthening.
But Papin had an ace up his sleeve: artificial intelligence in the form of Google’s new DeepMind hurricane model – released for the first time in June. And, as predicted, Melissa did become a storm of astonishing strength that tore through Jamaica.
Forecasters at the NHC are increasingly leaning hard on Google DeepMind. On the morning of 25 October, Papin explained in his public discussion and on social media that Google’s model was a primary reason he was so confident: “Roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that intensity yet given the
... Show more...When then Tropical Storm Melissa was churning south of Haiti, Philippe Papin, a National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologist, had confidence it was about to grow into a monster hurricane.As the lead forecaster on duty, he predicted that in just 24 hours the storm would become a category 4 hurricane and begin a turn towards the coast of Jamaica. No NHC forecaster had ever issued such a bold forecast for rapid strengthening.
But Papin had an ace up his sleeve: artificial intelligence in the form of Google’s new DeepMind hurricane model – released for the first time in June. And, as predicted, Melissa did become a storm of astonishing strength that tore through Jamaica.
Forecasters at the NHC are increasingly leaning hard on Google DeepMind. On the morning of 25 October, Papin explained in his public discussion and on social media that Google’s model was a primary reason he was so confident: “Roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a possibility.
Ironically, AI is getting better at predicting disasters.
‘Less expensive and time consuming’ model helps with fast and accurate predictions, possibly saving lives and property
Eric Holthaus (The Guardian)
coyotino [he/him]
in reply to Powderhorn • • •Powderhorn
in reply to coyotino [he/him] • • •locuester
in reply to coyotino [he/him] • • •coyotino [he/him]
in reply to locuester • • •locuester
in reply to coyotino [he/him] • • •Yet this post is about how it does work that way. There have always been pump and dumps.
Perhaps marketing and communications has advanced so much that everyone hears about everything and viral pump and dump stuff is far easier to spread.
smeg
in reply to coyotino [he/him] • • •Krauerking
in reply to Powderhorn • • •Its fun that they admit that they don't know the math behind why it picks the paths it does.
We are essentially having to learn our world all over again and these tools that can recognize patterns are gonna be helpful for that but it will still be on humans to figure out the why