Heading from the article linked below: “Global greenhouse gas emissions at record levels.” It states we are now heading for at least 2.9°C of planetary heating by 2100, and possibly higher.
Although the numbers seen here might appear pessimistic to some, I’ll remind you that in the past, nearly all climate reports from the UN have been overly *optimistic* — failing to anticipate both the stubborn intransigence of our capitalist rulers and the unpredictably extreme response of Earth’s ecosystem to rapidly increasing levels of atmospheric carbon.
So I’d advise taking these temperature predictions with a grain of salt. It could turn out even worse than they expect…
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The latest UNEP report finds that human emissions of greenhouse gases (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide) reached a record 57.1bn tonnes in 2023. Global emissions grew 1.3% last year compared with 2022 levels – a rate notably faster than that over the prior decade.
Since the previous report, there have not been any notable changes in country pledges or policies – and global emissions continued to grow. This means that the emissions gap is wider than it was last year and the world is further off track from its climate goals.
The report states that a continuation of current policies would result in a 100% chance of exceeding 1.5C, a 97% chance of exceeding 2C and a 37% chance of exceeding 3C by 2100.
As the report notes, these numbers do *not* include many of the climate-related impacts on greenhouse gas emissions that are not a result of direct human interventions – such as the catastrophic Canadian wildfires in 2023. The ability of the biosphere to absorb a portion of human emissions is broadly expected to weaken under scenarios where the world does not rapidly reduce emissions.
Ultimately, the report highlights that the growing emissions gap reflects a lack of political will by countries to address emissions, rather than any fundamental constraint on the world’s ability to rapidly mitigate.
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FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.carbonbrief.org/unep-new-climate-pledges-need-quantum-leap-in-ambition-to-deliver-paris-goals/
#History #Economics #Science #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange
UNEP: New climate pledges need ‘quantum leap’ in ambition to deliver Paris goals - Carbon Brief
There is a “massive gap between rhetoric and reality” that must be closed by new climate pledges being drafted under the Paris AgreementZeke Hausfather (Carbon Brief)
