Predictions are hard, but right now everything I read screams at me that #LuigiMangione is going to die, or to enter a dark hole he'll never return from.
Why? Because violence is power's answer to threats, and people in power want to prevent something akin to what @pluralistic lays out in prospect.org/culture/books/202…
Three things may avert this.
a) he's too white. b) there's going to be a better patsy. c) too many people making this prediction too public.
They're not mutually exclusive.
1/n
Jens Finkhäuser
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •This is not a comment on innocence or guilt, or on who is or isn't nice. It's not a comment on right or wrong.
It's just an observation on power/wealth and the dynamics surrounding it. The wealthy and powerful need to show that killing them is not going to pay off, so they'll devote significant resources to producing that show.
Your attention is already on Mangione. That's the show that needs to go their way.
The sad part here is that @pluralistic offers a way out at the end of his story.
Cory Doctorow reshared this.
Steve Popovich
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •Steve Popovich
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •Cory Doctorow reshared this.
Jens Finkhäuser
in reply to Steve Popovich • • •AlexTECPlayz
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •Preface: I didn't read Pluralistic's post yet.
I don't see how Luigi might die. If he's the criminal (and so far, all signs point to yes), he's going to face a really long time in prison, probably life. He doesn't really qualify for the death penalty (in NY, obviously not), that's usually reserved to first-degree murders - although we'll see what the court decides, this seems somewhat premeditated to me, so it might get bumped to first-degree murder.
30 years minimum for firearm silencer possession as per federal law, third degree weapon possession and second-degree murder definitely point to 35, 50 or life as the three main outcomes for his sentence.
Jens Finkhäuser
in reply to AlexTECPlayz • • •@alextecplayz The post is a short story, not a comment (but of course also a comment).
But like I wrote before, it's not specifically about him that I'm writing. I'm commenting on the process.
ferricoxide
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •There's also the whole, "generally not a good idea to create martyrs when the person in question is just the first bubble of a pot that's threatening to blow its lid off," thing potentially going for him.
In the case of Epstein, he had too much incriminating-information on too many people. From an incriminating-information perspective, #Mangione is, effectively, a nobody.
Jens Finkhäuser
in reply to ferricoxide • • •@ferricoxide I don't know about that. I admit it's been on my mind.
I think I know too little about living in the US to be able to form a good opinion, so I didn't mention that.
ferricoxide
in reply to Jens Finkhäuser • • •.de-ending domain isn't necessarily as indicative given the frequency with which people "randomly" pick servers to join). 😄Jens Finkhäuser
in reply to ferricoxide • • •@ferricoxide Very neutrally speaking, I think the question of martyrdom mostly hangs off the question of which weighs more heavily, dissatisfaction with the status quo, or fear of things getting worse?
That depends a lot on your current level of desperation.