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We’ve Been Underestimating the Scale of #Women’s #Fury

By Michelle Goldberg

On Saturday evening I was watching a movie w/my family when a text message made me gasp so hard that it scared them. “What happened?” my husband asked, worried. “Nothing bad,” I said, slightly overcome. “It’s just … #AnnSelzer has #Harris up 3 in #Iowa!”

#HellHathNoFury #RoeRage #misogyny #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensRights #HumanRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024
nytimes.com/2024/11/04/opinion…

in reply to Nonilex

All day, #political nerds had been waiting for the results of #AnnSelzer’s famously accurate poll of #Iowa. The state hasn’t been swingy in a long time, but the #Selzer poll, conducted for The #DesMoinesRegister, can offer clues about broader trends in the electorate. In 2016, when many #Democrats were feeling complacent about a #HillaryClinton victory, her survey showing #Trump leading by 7pts in Iowa was an early indication of his underestimated strength in the Midwest.

#Women
#HarrisWalz2024

in reply to Nonilex

(#Trump ended up winning #Iowa by >9 points.) In 2020, her poll again showed Trump ahead by 7pts, which was both close to the final tally &, in retrospect, a sign that #Biden’s margins in neighboring states like #Wisconsin would be much thinner than other polls were indicating.

So many of us were anxious to see how big Trump’s lead would be this time, & the fact that #Selzer instead found him #losing came as a shock.

#women #BodilyAutonomy #ReproductiveRights #WomensHealth
#HarrisWalz2024

in reply to Nonilex

The poll may easily turn out to be wrong; #Selzer’s record is as good as anyone’s in the business, but it’s not perfect. Should #KamalaHarris win this #election, though, the poll will be part of the story of her victory. The reason for Selzer’s anomalous finding is simple: #women. If it’s anywhere near accurate, it suggests that conventional political wisdom has been seriously underrating the scale of women’s #fury over #abortion bans & their revulsion at #Trump’s cartoonishly macho campaign.
in reply to Nonilex

in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴

#Elections2024 #USpol

(2/2)

...The Economist explained in his recent podcast endorsing #Harris, this time, there will not his staffers and the beaucrats reigning in his excesses. Through #Project2025 (e.g. replacing many important beaurocrats with loyalists) and the #SupremeCourt, #Trump will have quasi unfettered powers.

We've all been looking at the wrong #Apprentice:

"Sir, my need is sore.
Spirits that I've cited
My commands ignore."

The Sorcerer's Apprentice/ #Goethe

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