Hurrah, Danish government is about to decide I'll get my pension when I'm 71. 🤨
25 years to go....
Maybe we'll actually have solved climate change and sea level rise by then 🤔
Hurrah, Danish government is about to decide I'll get my pension when I'm 71. 🤨
25 years to go....
Maybe we'll actually have solved climate change and sea level rise by then 🤔
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to Ruth Mottram • • •#SeaLevelRise #TippingPoints
(1/3)
Hm, 25 years...we all know that #ClimateChange is probably even accelerating. +1.5°C has really been a "pie in the sky, and "only" +2° are becoming less likely by the day.
A study by #YixiZheng, an oceanographer at the University of East Anglia about the #ThwaitesGlacier in #WestAntarcticanicknamed the “#DoomsdayGlacier”—has shown that it's collapse would lead to sea level rise of 10 ft/3m. 1)
I guess you are one of the best persons to ask:
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise #TippingPoints
(3/3)
Will the retirement age even matter? How many people of #Denmark would be affected by a 3m rise? Would the billions needed for flood "control" not wrack the #Dutch budget and thus the state pension system, among other things. What percentage of the population would become #ClimateRefugees?
Recently, I saw an article about how many additional meters of sea level rise are saved in ice 🧊 and that we still don't know enough about tipping...
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise #TippingPoints
(3/3)
...points.
//
Sources [TBA]:
1)
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/112477437708730763
Ruth Mottram
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •Ruth Mottram
in reply to Ruth Mottram • • •@HistoPol this is probably the best and most recent reference for the importance of different scenarios of #SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica, and the long tail of the different emissions pathways - the sea will rise for centuries.
I will not live to see it.
https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2023-156/
The long–term sea–level commitment from Antarctica
tc.copernicus.orgHistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to Ruth Mottram • • •#SeaLevelRise #ForestFires #TippingPoints
(1/n)
Thank you, Ruth.
I will read it.
From all I have been reading, my aggregate "gut feeling" is that we still underestimate the rate of #ClimateChange, as well as the interconnectedness of #TriggerPoints:
“Triggering one tipping point 👉could trigger another in a kind of dangerous domino effect👈,” says #TimLenton at the #UniversityOfExeter in the #UK, the report’s lead author.
“But also 👉these tipping points in the Earth...
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise #ForestFires #TippingPoints
(2/n)
...system could, in turn, trigger damaging tipping points in societies,👈 things like food security crises, mass displacement [#ClimateRefugees]..." 1)
Another issue is that we probably are missing other trigger points.
I'm not sure if it's already listed as such, but in the last week, I read an article that the increasing...
1)
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/111541288612441502
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (@HistoPol@mastodon.social)
MastodonHistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise #ForestFires #TippingPoints
(3/n)
...seriousness and frequency of #ForestFires excercabate the likelihood of even more fires in the future, another #ViciousCircle.
Also, just looking at #Germany's forests, the vast majority consists of sick trees 2), prone to insects and fires.
Last but not least, some global regions sit on huge, unstoppable tinder boxes due to coal. 3)
2)
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110123013587695020
3)
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110013037485676421
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110033048450072572
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (@HistoPol@mastodon.social)
MastodonHistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to Ruth Mottram • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(1/n)
I've read this fascinating article. Also, I learned how scientists say that humanity is doomed without really spelling it out.
A rise of up to two meters seems technologically manageable. Up to 58m are definitely not, and I'd have my doubts about 6m as well, maybe only for rich countries.
Also, I can foresee completion b/w coastal nations and some...
https://fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/112961878395518461
Ruth Mottram
2024-08-14 18:51:14
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(2/n)
...crowding out for poorer countries.--If the sea doesn't flood Denmark, It'll have to go someplace else. Also, I still think there are too many unknowns regarding interactions between systems, e.g., a 20% rise in forest-fire emissions and future ice depletion at the poles.
At some point, the #NorthAtlanticConveyorBelt will collapse, causing even more extreme weather events, as the...
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(3/n)
...Caribbean is not cooled by it anymore, and the British Isles will not be warmed anymore.
In contrast to that phenomenon, current events of #OceanWarming 1) show, IMO, that at least one "tipping point" has already been passed that will affect glaciers.
Last but not least, all past global-warming models have erred on the "high side."
That said, why is humanity doomed:
Via #TheCryosphere
"...
https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110793549807331977
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 (@HistoPol@mastodon.social)
MastodonHistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(4/n)
...👉#Antarctic Ice...[has the] potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if melted entirely.👈
However, 👉future ice-sheet trajectories remain highly uncertain.👈 One of the main sources of uncertainty is related to nonlinear processes and feedbacks of the ice sheet with the Earth System on different timescales. Due to these feedbacks and the ice-sheet inertia, ice loss may already be triggered in...
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(5/n)
...the next decades and then unfolds delayed on multi-centennial to millennial timescales.."
"...warming levels representative of the lower-emission pathway SSP1-2.6 👉may already result in an Antarctic mass loss of up to 6 m sea-level equivalent on multi-millennial timescales.👈
"...👉 [the] collapse of the West #Antarctic #IceSheet is triggered in the entire ensemble of simulations from both...
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🥥 🌴 • • •#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(6/6)
...ice-sheet models. 👈
Over the next millennia, 👉this gives rise to a sea-level increase of up to 40 m in our experiments👈, stressing the importance of including the committed #Antarctic sea-level contribution in future projections."
Read on:
https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2023-156/
//
The long–term sea–level commitment from Antarctica
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