#SeaLevelRise #ForestFires #TippingPoints
(1/n)

Thank you, Ruth.
I will read it.

From all I have been reading, my aggregate "gut feeling" is that we still underestimate the rate of #ClimateChange, as well as the interconnectedness of #TriggerPoints:

“Triggering one tipping point 👉could trigger another in a kind of dangerous domino effect👈,” says #TimLenton at the #UniversityOfExeter in the #UK, the report’s lead author.
“But also 👉these tipping points in the Earth...

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(1/n)

I've read this fascinating article. Also, I learned how scientists say that humanity is doomed without really spelling it out.
A rise of up to two meters seems technologically manageable. Up to 58m are definitely not, and I'd have my doubts about 6m as well, maybe only for rich countries.
Also, I can foresee completion b/w coastal nations and some...

https://fediscience.org/@Ruth_Mottram/112961878395518461

Ruth Mottram

2024-08-14 18:51:14

@HistoPol this is probably the best and most recent reference for the importance of different scenarios of #SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica, and the long tail of the different emissions pathways - the sea will rise for centuries.

I will not live to see it.

https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2023-156/

The long–term sea–level commitment from Antarctica

Abstract. The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is of vital importance given the coastal and societal implications of ice loss, with a potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if melted entirely.

^{tc.copernicus.org}

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(2/n)

...crowding out for poorer countries.--If the sea doesn't flood Denmark, It'll have to go someplace else. Also, I still think there are too many unknowns regarding interactions between systems, e.g., a 20% rise in forest-fire emissions and future ice depletion at the poles.

At some point, the #NorthAtlanticConveyorBelt will collapse, causing even more extreme weather events, as the...

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(3/n)

...Caribbean is not cooled by it anymore, and the British Isles will not be warmed anymore.
In contrast to that phenomenon, current events of #OceanWarming 1) show, IMO, that at least one "tipping point" has already been passed that will affect glaciers.

Last but not least, all past global-warming models have erred on the "high side."
That said, why is humanity doomed:

Via #TheCryosphere

"...

https://mastodon.social/@HistoPol/110793549807331977

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(4/n)

...👉#Antarctic Ice...[has the] potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if melted entirely.👈
However, 👉future ice-sheet trajectories remain highly uncertain.👈 One of the main sources of uncertainty is related to nonlinear processes and feedbacks of the ice sheet with the Earth System on different timescales. Due to these feedbacks and the ice-sheet inertia, ice loss may already be triggered in...

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(5/n)

...the next decades and then unfolds delayed on multi-centennial to millennial timescales.."

"...warming levels representative of the lower-emission pathway SSP1-2.6 👉may already result in an Antarctic mass loss of up to 6 m sea-level equivalent on multi-millennial timescales.👈

"...👉 [the] collapse of the West #Antarctic #IceSheet is triggered in the entire ensemble of simulations from both...

#SeaLevelRise in #Antarctica
#ClimateCrisis
(6/6)

...ice-sheet models. 👈

Over the next millennia, 👉this gives rise to a sea-level increase of up to 40 m in our experiments👈, stressing the importance of including the committed #Antarctic sea-level contribution in future projections."

Read on:
https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2023-156/

//

The long–term sea–level commitment from Antarctica

Abstract. The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is of vital importance given the coastal and societal implications of ice loss, with a potential to raise sea level by up to 58 m if melted entirely.

^{tc.copernicus.org}