A New Nuclear Arms Race?

This is madness!

Nuclear weapons are extremely dangerous. At the height of the nuclear arms race between the USSR and the US, there were enough nuclear warheads ready to be delivered to their targets to kill every human several times. Several times nuclear weapons were almost used.

A question that I've thought about for decades is, "Did the deployment of nuclear weapons (including the ones on our FBM submarine) deter nuclear war or make it more likely?" Am I alive today because we were all very lucky or because deterrence works? Let's suppose it works. Is it the only strategy we should use to make another nuclear war less likely?

In fact, deploying nuclear weapons has never been the only way that governments have tried to make nuclear war less likely. Nuclear arms reduction treaties have also been negotiated, ever since the 1990s. They have been very successful! There are far fewer nuclear warheads stockpiled and far fewer ready to be delivered than there were in 1990.

I served in Rickover's nuclear navy. Here's what he had to say. https://flaglerlive.com/admiral-hyman-rickover-testimony/

RICKOVER. I think from a long-range standpoint–I’m talking about humanity–the most important thing we could do is start in having an international meeting where we first outlaw nuclear weapons to start with, then we outlaw nuclear reactors, too.

So who are these fools, not just here in the US, but also in China, Russia, and even the UK, that think we need to start spending more on nuclear weapons? Stop this now!

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June 17, 2024

Global Nuclear Spending Surged to $91 Billion in 2023 with U.S. Leading the Charge

The United States is driving a global surge in spending on nuclear
weapons. The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons reports
global spending on nukes jumped 13% to over $91 billion last year. The
United States spent over $51 billion modernizing its nuclear arsenal -
that's more money than all of the other nuclear nations spent last year
combined.

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Spending on nuclear weapons hit $91.4 billion in 2023, watchdog finds

by Lisa Schlein

GENEVA --

The world's nine nuclear-armed states together spent $91.4 billion last
year, or nearly $3,000 per second, as they "continue to modernize, and
in some cases expand their arsenals," according to a report issued
Monday by ICAN, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.

"This money is effectively being wasted given that the nuclear-armed
states agree that a nuclear war can never be won and should never be
fought," Alicia Sanders-Zakre, co-author of the report, told
journalists in Geneva last week in advance of the report's publication.

For example, she said, $91.4 billion a year "could pay for wind power
for more than 12 million homes to combat climate change or cover 27
percent of the global funding gap to fight climate change, protect
biodiversity and cut pollution."

The report shows the nuclear-armed states spent $10.7 billion more on
nuclear weapons in 2023 compared with 2022, with the United States
accounting for 80% of that increase.

ICAN reports the United States spent $51.5 billion, "more than all the
other nuclear-armed countries put together." It says the next biggest
spender was China at $11.8 billion with Russia spending the third
largest amount at $8.3 billion.

The report notes that the United Kingdom's "spending was up
significantly for the second year in a row," with a 17% increase to
$8.1 billion, just behind Russia.

The combined total of the five other nuclear powers, France, India,
Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea, amounted to $11.6 billion last year.

The authors of the report say companies involved in the production of
nuclear weapons received new contracts worth just less than $7.9
billion in 2023. Analysis of data gathered over the past five years
shows that the nuclear-armed states collectively spent $387 billion on
their nuclear arsenals.

"There has been a notable upward trend in the amount of money devoted
to developing these most inhumane and destructive of weapons over the
past five years, which is now accelerating," Sanders-Zakre said. "All
this money is not improving global security. In fact, it is threatening
people wherever they live."

Arms control experts share these concerns and warn of the dangers of a
new arms race as the nuclear powers build up their arsenals in defiance
of the spirit of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear
Weapons, which aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and
weapons technology.

A report in the May issue of Foreign Affairs magazine cites
Washington's concerns about China's rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal.
According to Pentagon estimates, "Under Chinese President Xi Jinping,
Beijing is on track to amass 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from
around 200 in 2019."

A 2023 report by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture
of the United States insists that China's nuclear expansion should
prompt U.S. policymakers to "re-evaluate the size and composition of
the U.S. nuclear force."

The commission also expressed disquiet at Russia's increasingly
aggressive behavior, "including the unprecedented growth of its nuclear
forces, diversification and expansion of its theater-based nuclear
systems, the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and subsequent full-scale
invasion in February 2022."

International anxiety about an accidental or deliberate tactical
nuclear attack by Russia was on display this past weekend at the G7
summit in Italy and at the peace summit for Ukraine in Switzerland.

In their final communique, the G7 leaders condemned Russia's "blatant
breach of international law" affirming that "in this context, threats
by Russia of nuclear weapons use, let alone any use of nuclear weapons
by Russia in the context of its war of aggression against Ukraine,
would be inadmissible."

This sentiment was mirrored in a final declaration signed by most of
the 100 countries that attended the Ukrainian peace conference. Notable
holdouts included India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and South
Africa.

Referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ICAN Executive Director
Melissa Parke warned, "This war has increased nuclear tensions between
Russia and the West to their highest level since the Cold War and there
is now a real threat of nuclear conflict as a result of Russia's
numerous overt and tacit nuclear threats."

ICAN's report, which profiles 20 countries involved in the production,
maintenance and development of nuclear weapons, notes that "Altogether
there is $335 billion in outstanding contracts related to nuclear
weapons work."

While the report shows significant growth in nuclear spending over the
last five years, Susi Snyder, ICAN's program coordinator and report
co-author, observes "there also has been growth in global resistance to
these weapons of mass destruction."

"The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has signatures from
nearly 100 countries. One-hundred-eleven investors representing about
$5 trillion in assets stated their support for the treaty," she said.

"They demanded that more efforts be made to exclude the nuclear weapons
industry from their business until these countries stop doing things
prohibited by the treaty," she said, noting the treaty is "a clear
pathway forward."

"It is a way to reduce tensions, to condemn threats, and to stop this
new nuclear arms race that we have illustrated here before it surges
any further out of control," she said.

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Watchdog: Nuclear-armed nations deepen reliance on nuclear weapons

by Associated Press

COPENHAGEN, Denmark --

The world's nine nuclear-armed states continue to modernize their
nuclear weapons as the countries deepened their reliance on such
deterrence in 2023, a Swedish think tank said Monday.

"We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in
international relations since the Cold War," said Wilfred Wan, director
of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's weapons of
mass destruction program.

Earlier this month, Russia and its ally Belarus launched a second stage
of drills intended to train their troops in tactical nuclear weapons,
part of the Kremlin's efforts to discourage the West from ramping up
support for Ukraine.

In a separate report, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear
Weapons, ICAN, said the nine nuclear-armed states spent a combined
total of $91.4 billion on their arsenals in 2023 -- equivalent to
$2,898 per second. The Geneva-based coalition of disarmament activists
won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.

The group said that figures show a $10.7 billion increase in global
spending on nuclear weapons in 2023 compared with 2022, with the United
States accounting for 80% of that increase. The U.S. share of total
spending, $51.5 billion, is more than all the other nuclear-armed
countries put together.

"There has been a notable upward trend in the amount of money devoted
to developing these most inhumane and destructive of weapons over the
past five years," said Alicia Sanders-Zakre, Policy and Research
Coordinator with ICAN.

The next biggest spender was China at $11.8 billion, she said, with
Russia spending the third largest amount at $8.3 billion.

"All this money is not improving global security, in fact it's
threatening people wherever they live," Sanders-Zakre said.

SIPRI estimated that about 2,100 of the deployed warheads were kept in
a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles, and nearly all
belong to Russia or the U.S. However, it said China is also believed to
have some warheads on high operational alert for the first time.

"Regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of
operational nuclear warheads," said Dan Smith, SIPRI's director. He
added that the trend will likely accelerate in the coming years "and is
extremely concerning."

Russia and the United States have together almost 90% of all nuclear
weapons, SIPRI said. The sizes of their military stockpiles seem to
have remained relatively stable in 2023, although Russia is estimated
to have deployed around 36 more warheads with operational forces than
in January 2023, the watchdog added.

In its SIPRI Yearbook 2024, the institute said that transparency
regarding nuclear forces has declined in both countries in the wake of
Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and debates
around nuclear-sharing arrangements have increased in importance.

Washington suspended its bilateral strategic stability dialogue with
Russia, and last year Moscow announced that it was suspending its
participation in the New START nuclear treaty.

Of the total global inventory of an estimated 12,121 warheads in
January, about 9,585 were in military stockpiles for potential use. An
estimated 3,904 of those warheads were deployed with missiles and
aircraft -- which is 60 more than in January 2023 -- and the rest were
in central storage.

In Asia, India, Pakistan and North Korea are all pursuing the
capability to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, the
institute said. The United States, Russia, France, U.K. and China have
that capacity, enabling a rapid potential increase in deployed
warheads, as well as the possibility for nuclear-armed countries to
threaten the destruction of significantly more targets. The ninth
nuclear nation is Israel.

SIPRI stressed that all estimates were approximate and that the
institute revises its world nuclear forces data each year based on new
information and updates to earlier assessments.

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