#GeoPol #WarInEurope #Belarus #NATO
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OPINION
#Putler is playing chess with #NATO. Having successfully re-activated his most succesful asset, the #OrangePeril, he's quietly been moving his biggest comparative strength vis-a-vis NATO, #TacticalNuclearWeapons, into strategic positions in his vassal state, #Belarus.
These missiles are now able to hit the #BalticStates, #Poland, as well as #Slovakia.
Using the West's permission (except...
newsweek.com/map-shows-range-r…
Map Shows Range of Russian Nukes Moved Closer to NATO Countries
Newsweek's map and satellite analysis identified two key sites in Belarus: a military depot and a storage site.Jesus Mesa (Newsweek)
This entry was edited (1 week ago)
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •#GeoPol #WarInEurope #Belarus #NATO
(2/2)
...for #Germany's) to hit targets outside of #Ukraine as a pretext, he now has no moved all pawns into place and can wait until his #MAGA (#MoscowAgentGriftingAmerica) is inaugurated on Jan. 20, 2025.
The only hope left for many ist that the #OrangePeril's perilous diet and life style will let him perish before that.
#BraveNewWorld
//
CaliCarol
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to CaliCarol • • •@jawarajabbi
Hm, I've heard the former argument too frequently since the full-blown invasion of #Ukraine. I wish you were right, though.
Also, I wish I had enough cash to counter Elmo's plutocratic takeover of the US. I wish...
med-mastodon.com/@mloxton/1136…
Matthew Loxton
2024-12-12 22:35:33
Coffeetest
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •Um, the USSR and now the new entity called the Russian Federation cosplaying an empire has ICBMs in service since the 1960s that could target anywhere since long before this new PR stunt of a missile existed.
RF has failed in Syria, seems to be failing in Georgia, has spent hundred of thousands lives making tiny gains in a war with a country it swore to not invade. Its navy has failed to a country without a navy.
Its economy failed catastrophically after a failed military quagmire in Afghanistan and doing its best to repeat that failure in Ukraine.
That the west is allowing him to play checkers is embarrassing. Even with that he'll be lucky to be alive leading North Korean V2. Sure they can cause a lot of pain and misery along the way but RF is treated like they the USSR at their peak.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to Coffeetest • • •@coffeetest
#GeoPol #Russia
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I kinda like your wording, "cosplaying". ;)
True, howerver Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles would most definitely mean WWIII and an Apocalypse-Now scenario. Tactical Nuclear Weapons can be used way below eradicating a city and are therefore not part of that doomsday scenario.
Yes, the Assad Dynasty is finished in Syria. However, an autocracy collapsing cannot be wholly, IMO, not even significantly attributed to a super power having failed.
Russia's...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest
#GeoPol #Russia
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...economy, for that matter, should have been wrecked by sanctions...years ago, time and again.
I know, many economists think differently, but as #TheEconomist (@theeconomist) reported in March of this year (1) e.g.), and #BusinessInsider recently 2), the #RUS economy has proven very resilient, time and again.
For one thing, apart from its #BlackFleet carrying sanctioned oil 3), it has diversified its illicit...
1)
economist.com/finance-and-econ…
Russia’s economy once again defies the doomsayers
The EconomistHistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •#GeoPol #Russia
(3/n)
...national income by using cryptocurrency skemes around the globe, e.g. lately in #Canada. 4)
It still retains the support of #NorthKorea, which will profit greatly from the fighter jets it will receive in return, as well as the other global super power, #China. IMO, #Russia is slowly but surely becoming a #Chinese vassal state. I'd argue, that #Xi would like the #Ukrainian war to continue, now that the...
4)
krebsonsecurity.com/2024/12/ho…
How Cryptocurrency Turns to Cash in Russian Banks
krebsonsecurity.comHistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest @theeconomist
#GeoPol #Russia
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...#MiddleEastWar might be turning to a close. The reason being that he's interested in diverting attention and test-casing how far an aggressor can go before the "internatatiol community" puts a stop to it. (Quite far, IMO.)
I agree with your stance regarding #Afghanistan and the former #Russian invasion, when the great #RedArmy had to flee, the tail between its legs.
At present, I don't see how the #RF would hold on...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest @theeconomist
#GeoPol #Russia
(5/n)
...to half of #Ukraine, let alone all of it. That might not be what's required.
I've long held the view, though, that a scorched-earth strategy for #UKR would be sufficient as a minimal strategic goal for the #Russian #stateterrorists: the ethnic #Finnish #KievanRus 5) are, IMO, THE heartland of Russia (I'm a #Normanist, btw ;)). The #Ukrainian population was seen as of the same blood, as brothers,...
5)
worldhistory.org/Kievan_Rus/
Kievan Rus
Joshua J. Mark (https://www.worldhistory.org#organization)HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest @theeconomist
#GeoPol #Russia
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...by most #Russians. In contrast to economically failing #Russia, #Ukraine was becoming an economically succesful western-styled #democracy, before the full-scale #Russian invasion took place. The only reason for economic discrepancies, therefore, could be the government. Therefore, #Putler could not permit a flourishing #Ukrainian Republic. He's even said that #Ukrainian indepence was a mistake of the former #Soviet government. In...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •#GeoPol #Russia
(7/n)
...any case, this is something that the #Russian masses must never become aware of.
So, my point is, a devestated #Ukraine (and he's already devastated huge areas in eastern #UKR!) might not be the best solution for the #Kremlin, but it is an acceptable outcome. To achieve this, they must not keep control of the country. Laying waste to most of #UKR will just do nicely.
So, the question is, not IF he pulls out, but rather WHEN and HOW MUCH..
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest @theeconomist
#GeoPol #Russia
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...#Ukraine will he have laid waste to.THAT would be enough, as literally "insane" that might sound.
//
Annex:
Missing footnote:
3)
mastodon.world/@Gilda/11250541…
Jill duh (@Gilda@mastodon.world)
MastodonCoffeetest
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@theeconomist Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe.
Look at their inflation, interest rates, currency valuation, declining worker population, loss of military contracts, a wartime economy that is rapidly depositing their reserves into a Ukrainian graveyard. What escape route do they have on all of that? Things take a lot more time than most think. We expect to see immediate reaction but organisms struggle to survive despite a losing battle.
Sorry I am not letting you finish your thread before replying. I have to refocus on other things shortly.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to Coffeetest • • •@coffeetest
"Economy. You have your sources so you are entitled to your informed opinion but time will tell despite what we believe."
Likewise, chapeau. ;) Through discussions and dialogues, we learn.
"Things take a lot more time than most think."
Excactly. IMO, the final outcome will be that the #RF breaks apart, at least in three. The far-eastern part will become part of #China. The #Chinese government officials have even already begun to rename border regions in northern India, as...
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •@coffeetest
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...well as south-eastern Russia.
I do not disagree with your analysis at all. I'm just afraid that #Putler will take #Ukraine down with his regime, or rather before he falls.
I pray and hope, that I'm wrong. Either way, the #OrangePeril, Moscow's most successful asset of all times, is getting another chance to wreck the US and the global post-WWII security framework, or rather what's left of it, apart form #NATO.
Have a great day/WE.
Coffeetest
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 • • •Perhaps more is to come with the 1/n but in flight an IRMBs and ICMBs are not distinguishable. So in terms of an object in flight the assessment of risk is the same.
I cannot see any reason why an ICBM cannot contain a smaller warhead - that's all we are talking about. The only distiquishing feature of this new missile is its range. There are many missile capable of being tactical nukes.
RF has subs which can go anywhere and strike anything that matters.
As far as super power - that was the USSR. RF has the economy of a US state and a dramatically failing one at that. Yes, it has nukes but that does not make it a super power.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴 reshared this.
HistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴
in reply to Coffeetest • • •@coffeetest
Sorry for being ambious, I meant China. The RF is no superpower.