"Emergency declared in Russia's #Khabarovsk after radiation detected, TASS says By Reuters April 5, 202412:09 PM...
...elevated radiation levels were detected near a power pylon about 2.5 km (1.5 miles) from residential buildings. No one had been injured or exposed to radiation and "there is no threat to the health of citizens",..."
Yes, I laughed back then. One of the rather hysterical kinds. 😞 let's still hope that it was just some leakage.
However, Ukrainian Sowjets did put up with a lot of misinformation for a very long time after the Chernobyl incident.
I hope your assessment will become reality, though. It will not be like the soft implosion of the GDR in 1989. In Russia, there will probably be a civil war if people take to the streets en masse.
@HistoPol Yes, everyone should have concern about how this current Muscovite regime will fall and what will replace it, but they should also fear that it doesn't fall and might even get more powerful too.
I think that taking down one of the last remaining empires would prove to be a good thing towards better human rights globally, but of course there's no way to be certain that everything will be fine in these fraught times.
I am glad that we have a POTUS with so much experience though.
Hopefully, Biden will remain in office for 4 more years, though he will need to tune down (economic) protectionism, in particular with military allies.
In my opinion, the #RussianFederation will fracture in 3 bigger parts and several smaller ones. The far eastern parts will be claimed by the #CCP, they've already begun renaming them. This will bode bad news for #Mongolia, as it is the heartland of the #Yuan Dynasty...
@HistoPol All predictions are estimations. I'm not wise enough to know if the inverse is true, but as to Russia's potential fate, a big difference with this period in time is how much more easily this huge recent diaspora might be able to get accurate information into the country for the average Russians to learn about reality.
But I know that I don't know enough about public opinion in that country. I won't be surprised if China tries to expand their empire though.
...how many people are in your bio's background photo. ;)
Now back to #Russia: Quite a few learned people who know more about Russian history and politics have been talking about this partitioning scenario (which is how I really see it, though I do give it a "more-likely-than-not" probability ;).)
On the other hand, regarding #China, I have read several text that do warrant my estimation. This scenario depends only on the #RussianFederation's...
...collapse, IMO, not on other signifcant factors (escape clause: if #China were to be engaged in a war with the West regarding #Taiwan at that point in time, its resources might be overstretched.)
That said, find your hypothesis regarding a better availability about information on the "outside world" in #Russia intriguing. I've begun asking around about it.
I see the initial problem that discussing that kind of sensitive information would chiefly...
@HistoPol I figure that someone's nephew can get info into their cousin who will share it face-to-face, but like I said I don't want to make it seem like I have a good handle on that opaque country's population too much.
Until some time ago, possibly. For months now, however, travel to and from Russia has been severly restricted. This, in fact, has substantial benefits for #Putler's Regime: his future "cannon fodder" has a hard time running away before being drafted. Also, limiting face-to-face encounters (someone from the #InfoSec community once told can be the only safe way of communication) makes surveillance and "narrative control" in the media much easier.
@HistoPol Oh I know. The Muscovites have had centuries to learn how to keep their subjects in line and they're effective, but I'm just not sure if they'll continue being successful.
All empires eventually fail for the most part excluding China, so far. Even China has faced some difficulties, but they've seemed to be able to rebound and become stronger.
#China: You are mistaken. It is a widely held believe in China that the region alternates over the centuries between a centralized empire and smaller states.
Epic classic:
Romance of the Three Kingdoms, novel traditionally attributed to the 14th-century Chinese writer Luo Guanzhong.
@HistoPol Okay thanks, I shouldn't really take on Chinese history. That should be my next project. I've only been doing a deeper dive into Moscow's history since the full-scale invasion and running into the class that Dr. Timothy Snyder streamed that year on Ukraine's history.
The #European parts will probably be reunited with Europe, culturally and economically speaking. In between? Warlords, I guess.
This is why I'm also gravely concerned about the eventual Fall of The House of #Putin aka the #RussianFederation. When the #SovieetUnion collapsed, many arms went "missing." Also, the civilian use of nuclear energy can eventually lead to atomic weapons, as #NorthKorea and #Iran have shown.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •#Russia
Well,
"Emergency declared in Russia's #Khabarovsk after radiation detected, TASS says
By Reuters
April 5, 202412:09 PM...
...elevated radiation levels were detected near a power pylon about 2.5 km (1.5 miles) from residential buildings.
No one had been injured or exposed to radiation and "there is no threat to the health of citizens",..."
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/emergency-declared-russias-khabarovsk-after-radiation-detected-tass-says-2024-04-05/
Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •I'm old enough to remember when Russian media was reporting that there was no danger from Chernobyl.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •Yes, I laughed back then. One of the rather hysterical kinds. 😞 let's still hope that it was just some leakage.
However, Ukrainian Sowjets did put up with a lot of misinformation for a very long time after the Chernobyl incident.
I hope your assessment will become reality, though. It will not be like the soft implosion of the GDR in 1989. In Russia, there will probably be a civil war if people take to the streets en masse.
Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •@HistoPol
Yes, everyone should have concern about how this current Muscovite regime will fall and what will replace it, but they should also fear that it doesn't fall and might even get more powerful too.
I think that taking down one of the last remaining empires would prove to be a good thing towards better human rights globally, but of course there's no way to be certain that everything will be fine in these fraught times.
I am glad that we have a POTUS with so much experience though.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •#RUSpol #USpol
The Fall of the House of Putin
(1/2)
Hopefully, Biden will remain in office for 4 more years, though he will need to tune down (economic) protectionism, in particular with military allies.
In my opinion, the #RussianFederation will fracture in 3 bigger parts and several smaller ones. The far eastern parts will be claimed by the #CCP, they've already begun renaming them. This will bode bad news for #Mongolia, as it is the heartland of the #Yuan Dynasty...
Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •I only predict things governed by physics as I find humans to be too ungoverned by laws or even reason to be able to model their behaviour.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •@HistoPol
All predictions are estimations. I'm not wise enough to know if the inverse is true, but as to Russia's potential fate, a big difference with this period in time is how much more easily this huge recent diaspora might be able to get accurate information into the country for the average Russians to learn about reality.
But I know that I don't know enough about public opinion in that country. I won't be surprised if China tries to expand their empire though.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •#RUSpol #China
(1/n)
LOL. Semantics. Actually, not. I was using estimation, not estimate, on purpose: 1) judgement, opinion.
However, I did like the ambivalence. ;)
To say you are not "wise enough" shows wisdom. ;)
A prediction is, in my view, too, something that is excpected to happen, a forecast.
More mathematically, I'd say it has to do with probabilities.
An estimate does not need to have predictive qualities. - Estimate...
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •#RUSpol #China
(2/n)
...how many people are in your bio's background photo. ;)
Now back to #Russia:
Quite a few learned people who know more about Russian history and politics have been talking about this partitioning scenario (which is how I really see it, though I do give it a "more-likely-than-not" probability ;).)
On the other hand, regarding #China, I have read several text that do warrant my estimation. This scenario depends only on the #RussianFederation's...
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •#RUSpol #China
(3/n)
...collapse, IMO, not on other signifcant factors (escape clause: if #China were to be engaged in a war with the West regarding #Taiwan at that point in time, its resources might be overstretched.)
That said, find your hypothesis regarding a better availability about information on the "outside world" in #Russia intriguing. I've begun asking around about it.
I see the initial problem that discussing that kind of sensitive information would chiefly...
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •#RUSpol
(4/4)
...need to be limited to face-to-face communication, as most #Russian people don't know about end-to-end encryption.
//
Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •I figure that someone's nephew can get info into their cousin who will share it face-to-face, but like I said I don't want to make it seem like I have a good handle on that opaque country's population too much.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •This, in fact, has substantial benefits for #Putler's Regime: his future "cannon fodder" has a hard time running away before being drafted. Also, limiting face-to-face encounters (someone from the #InfoSec community once told can be the only safe way of communication) makes surveillance and "narrative control" in the media much easier.
Kevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •@HistoPol
Oh I know. The Muscovites have had centuries to learn how to keep their subjects in line and they're effective, but I'm just not sure if they'll continue being successful.
All empires eventually fail for the most part excluding China, so far. Even China has faced some difficulties, but they've seemed to be able to rebound and become stronger.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to Kevin Leecaster • • •#Russia: true.
#China:
You are mistaken. It is a widely held believe in China that the region alternates over the centuries between a centralized empire and smaller states.
Epic classic:
Romance of the Three Kingdoms, novel traditionally attributed to the 14th-century Chinese writer Luo Guanzhong.
Reads really well.
https://www.britannica.com/topic/Romance-of-the-Three-Kingdoms
Romance of the Three Kingdoms | Summary, Characters, & Facts
Encyclopedia BritannicaKevin Leecaster
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •Okay thanks, I shouldn't really take on Chinese history. That should be my next project. I've only been doing a deeper dive into Moscow's history since the full-scale invasion and running into the class that Dr. Timothy Snyder streamed that year on Ukraine's history.
HistoPol (#HP)
in reply to HistoPol (#HP) • • •#RUSpol #USpol
(2/2)
...with its former capital, #Karakorum.
The #European parts will probably be reunited with Europe, culturally and economically speaking.
In between? Warlords, I guess.
This is why I'm also gravely concerned about the eventual Fall of The House of #Putin aka the #RussianFederation. When the #SovieetUnion collapsed, many arms went "missing."
Also, the civilian use of nuclear energy can eventually lead to atomic weapons, as #NorthKorea and #Iran have shown.