#HPsCommentary

*#DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*

(5/n)

#DRAM price anomaly?

With a huge backlash now against #Datacenters (ex-China,) at least in the Western World, and energy supply being a strong limitational, factor, as #ElonMusk explained in his recent long #TheEconomist interview, I don't...

@jpturcotte

@mountdiscovery

*DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*

(3/n)

eetimes.com/dram-prices-rise-s…

However, the price, in fact, the whole market, collapsed after production capacity proved intact:

128-megabit #DRAM prices fell to $0.99 (a record low for that period)

Manufacturing cost: ~$2 per chip

Price versus cost margin: Chips selling at 50% of production cost

Industry context: "All DRAM makers reported losses after sales worldwide fell two-thirds to US$10 billion"

Manufacturers' capacity...

(2/n)

the September 21, 1999 earthquake.

Prior to the earthquake (Sept. 20): Prices were around $15.50

Price jump: Approximately 37% increase in one day

Contract pricing: #Micron raised 64-Mbit #DRAM from $7.50 to >$9

The article documents immediate panic buying by OEMs concerned about supply disruptions, with Micron's VP of Investor Relations stating

"There's not a lot of volume going on there because the suppliers were woefully short, even prior to the earthquake."

@jpturcotte

#HPsCommentary
#Business #AI #Investment

*#DRAM price hikes are unwarranted--Party Like It's 1999*

(1/n)

What could happen? --History does not repeat itself, but it surely does rhyme.

*Case Study: The 1999 #Taiwan Earthquake and the Global Silicon Aftershocks*

The September 21, 1999 Taiwan earthquake (magnitude 7.6) did initially trigger dramatic #DRAM price spikes.

Key Data Points:

64-Mbit DRAM (memory) spot-market prices reached $21.25 in N-#American markets following...