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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Harris wins 58 times out of 100

in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump wins 41 times out of 100.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

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